Recently, news from Canada has drawn high attention from the cross - border trade and investment community. According to an official familiar with the situation, the Canadian government has drafted a list of US - made goods worth about 150 billion Canadian dollars (about 105 billion US dollars). If the new US leadership decides to impose tariffs on Canadian products, the US products on this list will face retaliatory tariffs. It is understood that this plan is still in the discussion stage. Ottawa will only initiate the tax - collection procedure after the US implements relevant tariffs first, and the list may be further expanded.

This is not the first time such a severe bilateral trade dispute has occurred in North America. In the previous few years, several rounds of tit - for - tat tariff disputes broke out between the two countries over steel, aluminum, and other sensitive industries. At that time, the US imposed additional tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum products, prompting Canada to counter - impose tariffs at the same rate on some US goods, including whiskey and washing machines. Compared with the scale of that year, the proposed target list of 150 billion Canadian dollars is much larger, accounting for about one - third of Canadas imports from the US. According to official statistics, in the 12 months ending in November last year, Canada imported about 487 billion Canadian dollars worth of goods from the US. If this retaliatory tariff list is implemented, it will have a significant impact on the trade relations between the two sides.

Politically, Canadas top administrative leader recently met with local leaders from various provinces across the country in Ottawa. One of the core topics was how to respond to the possible US protectionist policies. Among the 13 provincial and territorial officials, 12 signed a statement after the meeting, indicating that they would jointly take a tough stance in response to possible new US tariff moves. The statement emphasized that if the interests of the northern country are damaged, they will take equivalent or even more severe counter - measures to safeguard the countrys economic and industrial security.

Only one official from a resource - based region had reservations about some radical plans. This region is known for its energy exports, and some new proposals involving taxing energy exports or reducing energy supplies to the US were met with hesitation from this official. The local concern is that excessive counter - measures may also backfire on the sustainable and stable exports of the countrys related industries. It is currently unclear how detailed rules this list or counter - measures will have when implemented, nor can we judge whether the government will further fine - tune them.

Another key participant is from central Canada, which is the core of the automotive industry cluster and manufacturing base. The local principal said on the sidelines of the Ottawa meeting that in the face of potential US pressure, the leadership of all sectors in Canada should unite. He mentioned that when the US considers imposing tariffs on Canada, it will not distinguish between provinces or regions, but will target the whole country. Having witnessed trade frictions many times, he frankly told the media, If the other side hits us with a sledgehammer, we must hit back with greater force. He also wore a hat with the words Canada is not for sale printed on it, showing a tough stance to the outside world.

Looking back at the steel and aluminum disputes in 2018, the US imposed tariffs on Canada worth about 16.6 billion Canadian dollars at that time, and Canada immediately implemented corresponding retaliatory measures against a series of US - produced goods, including products from key swing areas in the US political arena. That operation, to some extent, exerted political pressure, causing some US domestic industries to face rising costs or restricted sales. Now, if the US extends the tariff stick to Canada in a wider range of fields, Canada has apparently brewed an upgraded strategy, which may directly make more US companies and communities feel the pain, forcing the Washington decision - makers to reconsider.

However, since 2020, both countries have experienced the impacts of the pandemic and supply - chain fluctuations, and economic recovery remains a top priority for each. Canada and the US are each others major trading partners. If such large - scale retaliatory tariffs are implemented, it will inevitably impact the North American industrial chain and consumers. Some US - funded enterprises operating in Canada may bear the brunt, facing the dual pressures of rising raw material import costs and declining sales. For Canadian local enterprises, they also have to bear multiple uncertainties: if the situation further escalates, it will not only affect import costs but also their overall export scale and competitiveness in the US market.

International trade observers believe that this potential dispute is not insoluble. On the one hand, it depends on the attitude of the new US leadership towards the multilateral or bilateral trade agreements signed during the previous administration, the revision of trade tax rates, or the manufacturing - back - home policy. On the other hand, it also depends on how the Canadian government balances retaliation and cooperation in actual operations to avoid over - harming its own industries. Many experts call on the two countries to return to the negotiating table and resolve trade differences through dialogue and institutional consultations instead of simply resorting to mutual tariff increases.

Currently, there are no details about the specific products covered by this preliminary list. There are rumors that it may focus on some high - impact and politically sensitive industries, such as those with numerous factories in key US congressional constituencies. This has been a tried - and - true strategy in the past. For US politicians, any counter - measures from allies mean potential damage to domestic employment and the economy, which is likely to translate into voter dissatisfaction. For this reason, trade wars are often deeply embedded in political games, and every step will consider costs and benefits.

The future trade trends in North America still have great uncertainties. Canada has apparently taken precautions by preparing an unprecedentedly large retaliatory list in case the US takes the initiative unilaterally. Judging from historical experience, when it really comes to a full - scale confrontation, both sides will inevitably seek to ease the situation. If the situation gets out of control, in addition to corporate interests and supply - chain security, the political trust between the two countries and the achievements of North American economic integration will also be severely impacted. Regardless of the result, whether this potential game will really explode after the new leadership takes office will surely become a major focus of North American and even global trade.